The fall of Byju’s, once hailed as India’s ed-tech unicorn, started with its rapid expansion during the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to cash-flow problems. Now, everyone says the company overestimated its ability to manage such rapid growth without fully understanding the risks. But a few years ago, they were regarded as the daredevils of unicorns.
Putting aside the issues of financial mismanagement and other aspects, I wish to emphasize an underlying psychological phenomenon: a cognitive bias called the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
Byju’s is not alone in this game. According to the IBM Institute for Business Value and Oxford Economics, around 90% of Indian startups fail within the first five years.
And it’s not just startups. Google’s recent streak of mediocre performance, including Gemini, and even AstraZeneca’s withdrawal of Covid vaccines are signs of the Dunning-Kruger Effect. So what is this phenomenon?
It refers to a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a particular area tend to overestimate their competence, while those with high ability may underestimate their competence.
Psychologists Dunning and Kruger discovered this phenomenon in 1999. It stems from the inability to objectively recognize one’s own incompetence.
It is quite common to see kids overestimate their ability to achieve a goal. And it’s not just kids; even politicians often fall into this trap. With as many as 64 countries in the world having elections in 2024, it’s something to watch out for.
In this world of opportunities, thinking big and taking risks are considered success mantras. Professionals are bombarded with data, opinions, and expertise that often lead to overconfidence, where individuals assume they know more than they actually do. Social media platforms and influencers amplify self-assuredness.
And then, professionals often feel pressure to project confidence. Admitting ignorance or seeking help may be perceived as weakness, leading to overestimation of abilities.
Another significant problem is assuming skills in one area automatically translate to expertise in another.
In essence, it is not easy for professionals in today’s world to objectively assess their competence or that of their organization’s.
So, in today’s world, it’s unavoidable to be Dunning-Kruger biased 🙂
When it comes to my forte, Client Relationship Management and Client Centric Business Growth, here are a few pitfalls to watch out for:
As a leader, you can go wrong in Client Relationship Management and fall for the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
Download Client Centric Decision Making Checklist and avoid Dunning-Kruger Traps
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